๐ŸŒ Poverty Prediction Engine

Based on World Bank PIP Methodology โ€” Growth-Inequality-Poverty Triangle Model

๐Ÿ”ฎ Predictor
๐Ÿ—บ๏ธ Country Analysis
๐Ÿ“Š Scenario Simulator
๐Ÿ“ Methodology
๐Ÿ“‹ Global Data

๐Ÿ“ฅ Input Parameters

2021 PPP-adjusted
At $3.00/day line
0=perfect equality
Negative = reducing inequality

Climate & Shock Adjustments

GDP loss from climate events
0=none, 1=severe
0=stable, 1=active conflict

๐Ÿ—บ๏ธ Country Poverty Profile Comparison

Select countries to compare their poverty indicators side by side.

๐Ÿ“Š Poverty Decomposition โ€” Growth vs Inequality Effect

The World Bank decomposes poverty changes into a growth component (rising incomes lift people out) and a redistribution component (changing inequality shifts who benefits). This engine calculates both.

๐ŸŽญ What-If Scenario Simulator

Compare how different policy choices affect poverty outcomes for the same country.

โœ… Optimistic Scenario

โš–๏ธ Baseline Scenario

โš ๏ธ Pessimistic Scenario

๐Ÿ“ World Bank Poverty Calculation โ€” Full Methodology

International Poverty Lines (2021 PPP, June 2025 Update)

Line2017 PPP2021 PPP (Current)Applies To
Extreme Poverty$2.15/day$3.00/dayAll countries
Lower-Middle Income$3.65/day$4.20/dayLMICs (India, Bangladesh)
Upper-Middle Income$6.85/day$8.30/dayUMICs (Brazil, China)

Core Formulas Used in This Engine

1. Poverty Headcount Ratio (Pโ‚€)

Pโ‚€ = (1/N) ร— ฮฃ I(yแตข < z)
where I(.) = 1 if individual's welfare is below poverty line z

2. Growth Elasticity of Poverty (GEP)

GEP = (% ฮ” poverty rate) / (% ฮ” GDP per capita)
Typical range: 1.5 to 5.0 | Average for developing countries: ~3.0

3. Poverty Prediction (This Engine's Core Model)

P(t+1) = P(t) ร— [1 - GEP ร— (g_effective / 100)]

where:
g_effective = g_gdp - g_pop - g_inflation_adj - g_climate - g_water - g_conflict
g_gdp = GDP growth rate
g_pop = population growth rate
g_inflation_adj = max(0, inflation - 4) ร— 0.3 [excess inflation penalty]
g_climate = climate shock impact
g_water = water_scarcity_factor ร— 1.5 [agricultural GDP loss]
g_conflict = conflict_factor ร— 3.0 [conflict multiplier]

GEP is adjusted by inequality:
GEP_adjusted = GEP_base ร— (1 - gini/100) ร— 2 [higher inequality = lower elasticity]
GEP_base = 3.0 (World Bank average for developing countries)

Inequality effect on poverty:
inequality_effect = gini_change ร— 0.7 [1% Gini increase โ†’ 0.7% poverty increase]

4. Extrapolation (World Bank PIP Method)

f(y_ref) = (NA_ref / NA_survey) ร— f(y_survey)
where NA_t = real GDP per capita or HFCE per capita at time t

5. Poverty Gap Index (Pโ‚)

Pโ‚ = (1/N) ร— ฮฃ (Gแตข / z)
where Gแตข = (z - yแตข) ร— I(yแตข < z)

6. Societal Poverty Line

z_sp = max($3.00, $1.30 + 0.5 ร— median_consumption)
Sources: World Bank PIP Methodology Handbook, Haughton & Khandker (2009), Ravallion (2003), Chen & Ravallion (2004), Jolliffe et al. (2024), Foster et al. (2025). Growth Elasticity of Poverty estimates from World Bank Open Knowledge Repository. Climate and water scarcity adjustments based on IPCC AR6 and World Bank Climate & Development Reports.

๐Ÿ“‹ Country Poverty Database

CountryPopulation (M)GDP/Cap (PPP) Poverty Rate (%)GiniGDP Growth (%) Poor (M)Water Stress